Joe Guarino: Obama to dump Biden?

September 12, 2008

Rush Limbaugh openly speculated during the opening moments of his radio program today as to whether Barack Obama might be preparing to remove Joe Biden from his ticket in favor of Hillary Clinton. He cited the two-hour lunch meeting Obama had with Bill Clinton yesterday in Harlem.

But there are other circumstances, of course, that could theoretically lead to a perceived need to change the vice-presidential nominee. First, of course, is the nomination of Sarah Palin and the manner in which it has turned the presidential race upside down. Obama is now behind in the polls nationally and in some of the key states he was previously leading.

Second, there is newly released polling information that suggests the change of fortune could spill down to congressional races, and perhaps even cause the national Democrats to lose control of the House of Representatives.

Third, the Obama campaign at least momentarily appears to be out of energy, to be striking the wrong notes with the electorate, and to have lost its appeal.

And fourth, even Joe Biden has conceded that Hillary would have been a better running mate.

It is not clear to me how a national party, at this point, goes about changing its nominee. I do not know how party rules could make that happen.

But if, in fact, there are secret negotiations taking place with respect to Hillary replacing Biden on the ticket, the Clinton's are in a very strong negotiating position. And I suspect that Obama, to entice her to join him, would have to cede to the Clinton's a significant chunk of his presidency.

That is why I suspect it will not happen. But if it does, we may not learn until much later what agreements have been made.