The New Math

With only 12 primaries left for the Democrat Party, the new math goes like this: Clinton needs 97% of the remaining delegates to clinch the presidential nomination and Obama needs 77%. According to cnn.com, Obama has 1,520 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1,424. 2,025 are needed to win the nomimation, so what does this mean?

It means that it is highly unlikely that either candidate can win by the primary route alone. Superdelegates will determine the presidential candidate when the dems meet in Denver, and the question is whether the supers will follow the popular will reflected in both delegate count and vote totals. By both measures Obama leads, but will the Clinton machine try to broker Hillary into the top slot? Of course. The Clintons are already trying to pry loose delegates that Obama won through primaries and caucuses, so of course they will try to broker some deal to overturn the popular vote so that Hillary can become president. Subverting the will of the people to gain the presidency? Is there any doubt that the Clintons would do this? Jesse Jackson and others have raised the possibility of another messy convention like Chicago in 1968.

On the morning television circuit, Obama said that his lead is "close to insurmountable." Clinton was asked whether she would be a part of the ticket with Obama. Her answer was that it hasn't been determined who would be in the top spot in that ticket. She also said that Ohio had voted overwhelmingly that she should be at the top of the ticket. She didn't mention that more states have spoken than Ohio, and that Obama is the choice of most of those states. Of course she didn't mention that.

Clinton still leads in the Superdelegate count by 39, but last week one superdelegate, Congressman John Lewis of Georgia, defected from Hillary's camp and more will likely follow if Obama continues to win a majority of contests and delegates.